PROJECTION OF INCIDENT SURFACE SOLAR RADIATION IN CHINA UNDER A CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIO
- 1School of Atmospheric Sciences, and Guangdong Province Key Laboratory for Climate Change and Natural Disaster Studies, Sun Yat-sen University, Zhuhai, 519000, China
- 2Key Laboratory of Watershed Geographic Sciences, Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nanjing, 210008, China
- 3State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Science, Cold and Arid Regions Environment and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou, 730000, China
Keywords: Incident Surface Solar Radiation, Projection, RCP8.5, China, Tibetan Plateau
Abstract. We projected incident surface solar radiation (SSR) over China in the middle (2040–2059) and end (2080–2099) of the 21st century in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario using a multi-model ensemble derived from the weighted average of seven global climate models (GCMs). The multi-model ensemble captured the contemporary (1979–2005) spatial and temporal characteristics of SSR and reproduced the long-term temporal evolution of the mean annual SSR in China. However, it tended to overestimate values compared to observations due to the absence of aerosol effects in the simulations. The future changes in SSR showed increases over eastern and southern China, and decreases over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and northwest China relative to the present day. At the end of the 21st century, there were SSR increases of 9–21 W m−2 over northwest, central, and south China, and decreases of 18–30 W m−2 over the TP in June–July–August (JJA). In northeast China, SSR showed seasonal variation with increases in JJA and decreases in December–January–February. The time series of annual SSR had a decreased linear trend for the TP, and a slightly increased trend for China during 2006–2099. The results of our study suggest that solar energy resources will likely decrease in the TP under future climate change scenarios.