A NEPHOGRAM PREDICTION METHOD BASED ON GENERATIVE ADVERSARIAL NETWORK
Keywords: Nephogram Prediction, Unsupervised Learning, Generative Adversarial Network, Multi-scale Network
Abstract. As one of the important sources of meteorological information, satellite nephogram is playing an increasingly important role in the detection and forecast of disastrous weather. The predictions about the movement and transformation of cloud with certain timeliness can enhance the practicability of satellite nephogram. Based on the generative adversarial network in unsupervised learning, we propose a prediction model of time series nephogram, which construct the internal representation of cloud evolution accurately and realize nephogram prediction for the next several hours. We improve the traditional generative adversarial network by constructing the generator and discriminator used the multi-scale convolution network. After the scale transform process, different scales operate convolutions in parallel and then merge the features. This structure can solve the problem of long-term dependence in the traditional network, and both global and detailed features are considered. Then according to the network structure and practical application, we define a new loss function combined with adversarial loss function to accelerate the convergence of model and sharpen predictions which keeps the effectivity of predictions further. Our method has no need to carry out the stack mathematics calculation and the manual operations, has greatly enhanced the feasibility and the efficiency. The results show that this model can reasonably describe the basic characteristics and evolution trend of cloud cluster, the prediction nephogram has very high similarity to the ground-truth nephogram.