The International Archives of the Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences
Publications Copernicus
Articles | Volume XLI-B2
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B2, 285–290, 2016
Int. Arch. Photogramm. Remote Sens. Spatial Inf. Sci., XLI-B2, 285–290, 2016

  07 Jun 2016

07 Jun 2016


M. Ahmadlou1, M. R. Delavar2, H. Shafizadeh-Moghadam3, and A. Tayyebi4 M. Ahmadlou et al.
  • 1GIS Dept., School of Surveying and Geospatial Eng., College of Eng., University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  • 2Center of Excellence in Geomatic Eng. in Disaster Management, School of Surveying and Geospatial Eng., College of Engineering, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
  • 3Department of GIS and Remote Sensing, Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran, Iran
  • 4Center for Conservation Biology, University of California-Riverside, Riverside, CA, USA

Keywords: Random Forest, Urban Growth Modelling, Relative Operating Characteristics, Total Operating Characteristics, Coastal Region

Abstract. The importance of spatial accuracy of land use/cover change maps necessitates the use of high performance models. To reach this goal, calibrating machine learning (ML) approaches to model land use/cover conversions have received increasing interest among the scholars. This originates from the strength of these techniques as they powerfully account for the complex relationships underlying urban dynamics. Compared to other ML techniques, random forest has rarely been used for modeling urban growth. This paper, drawing on information from the multi-temporal Landsat satellite images of 1985, 2000 and 2015, calibrates a random forest regression (RFR) model to quantify the variable importance and simulation of urban change spatial patterns. The results and performance of RFR model were evaluated using two complementary tools, relative operating characteristics (ROC) and total operating characteristics (TOC), by overlaying the map of observed change and the modeled suitability map for land use change (error map). The suitability map produced by RFR model showed 82.48% area under curve for the ROC model which indicates a very good performance and highlights its appropriateness for simulating urban growth.