Integrating GIS with AHP and Fuzzy Logic to generate hand, foot and mouth disease hazard zonation (HFMD-HZ) model in Thailand

Abstract. The main objective of this research was the development of an HFMD hazard zonation (HFMD-HZ) model by applying AHP and Fuzzy Logic AHP methodologies for weighting each spatial factor such as disease incidence, socio-economic and physical factors. The outputs of AHP and FAHP were input into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) process for spatial analysis. 14 criteria were selected for analysis as important factors: disease incidence over 10 years from 2003 to 2012, population density, road density, land use and physical features. The results showed a consistency ratio (CR) value for these main criteria of 0.075427 for AHP, the CR for FAHP results was 0.092436. As both remained below the threshold of 0.1, the CR value were acceptable. After linking to actual geospatial data (disease incidence 2013) through spatial analysis by GIS for validation, the results of the FAHP approach were found to match more accurately than those of the AHP approach. The zones with the highest hazard of HFMD outbreaks were located in two main areas in central Muang Chiang Mai district including suburbs and Muang Chiang Rai district including the vicinity. The produced hazardous maps may be useful for organizing HFMD protection plans.